Saturday, April 01, 2006

Who Would You Vote For? -- Online Poll

Check out our new online poll and vote for you preferred political party, or indicate how you intend to vote on April 9, 2006, during the first round of the Hungarian parliamentary elections. You may only vote once from any computer. While this type of online polling is clearly not scientific, it may still provide an indication of voting intentions and tendencies if enough people take the poll during the next few days.

Click on the link below to respond to the poll:

http://kac.pollhost.com/

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Polls: Race Remains Tight as Parties Approach the Finish Line

March 31 was the last day that Hungarian newspapers and periodicals were permitted to publish the results of opinion polls regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections. According to Hungary's electoral laws, poll results cannot be published during the last 8 days of the campaign. This poses a major problem for polling firms, as they will not be able to determine if voting preferences shift during the last--and most intensive--week of the campaign. Two party leaders debates will be held during the last week, along with Fidesz and Socialist (MSZP) campaign rallies in Budapest on April 1 and April 2.

Most polls indicate a tight race between Fidesz and the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP). Nevertheless, the majority of firms also assert that the Socialists may well be headed for a victory and a historic second mandate, especially if their junior coalition partner--the liberal SZDSZ--is able to muster at least 5% support on election day.

Here are the latest results from each firm:

Szonda-Ipsos

MSZP: 44% - 46%
Fidesz-KDNP: 42% - 44%
SZDSZ: 4% - 5%
MDF: 3%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 3%

Tárki

MSZP: 43% - 46%
Fidesz-KDNP: 39% - 43%
SZDSZ: 5% - 6%
MDF: 3% - 4%

Medián:

MSZP: 44%
Fidesz-KDNP: 44%
SZDSZ: 5%
MDF: 3%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 2%

Gallup:

Fidesz-KDNP: 46%
MSZP: 43%
SZDSZ: 5%
MDF: 3%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 2%
Munkáspárt: 1%
Centrum Párt 1%

Capital Research:

MSZP: 45%
Fidesz-KDNP: 41%
SZDSZ: 6%
MDF: 6%

Marketing Centrum:

MSZP: 44%
Fidesz-KDNP: 43%
SZDSZ: 5%
MDF: 4%

REAL-PR 93:

Fidesz: 45.5%
MSZP: 40.2%
SZDSZ: 4.6%
MDF: 2.9%
Other: 6.8%

Monday, March 27, 2006

Fidesz and Socialists Still Tied: Gallup

The centre-right Fidesz-Christian Democratic People's Party alliance (Fidesz-KDNP) is still tied with the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) according to the latest poll results released by Gallup Hungary. According to the numbers, Fidesz has a 2% lead over the MSZP, meaning that the two parties are still stuck in a statistical dead heat. Of the smaller parties, only the liberal, left-leaning Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) has a chance of returning to parliament. The latest Gallup poll indicates that Hungary will have only two parties left in the parliament after the vote.

The Results:

Fidesz-KDNP: 32
MSZP: 30
SZDSZ: 4%
MDF: 2%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 1%
Undecided: 16%
Would not vote: 13%

Sunday, March 19, 2006

Fidesz and Socialists both Plan Mass Rally for April 2

The Fidesz - Christian Democratic People's Party alliance (Fidesz-KDNP) and the governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) both plan to hold mass rallies in downtown Budapest on Sunday, April 2. Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány announced his intention to hold a rally on Andrassy Boulevard and on Heroes Square with all those who are "worried about the fate of the republic." The next day at the Fidesz party congress Viktor Orbán, the centre-right alliance's candidate for the prime ministership, announced that he too will hold a mass rally on Kossuth Square, right in front of the parliament. Mr. Orbán invites all those who "want to live in Hungary without fear. Everyone should be there with us on April 2, so that we can stand up for peace, understanding and good will."

According to Prime Minister Gyurcsány, however, the Hungarian republic needs protecting from anti-republican right-wing forces. "I invite all friends of the republic--be they left-wing or other--who agree on one thing: it is up to the left to protect the republic, democracy, the rule of law, freedom, honesty and integrity."

Thursday, March 16, 2006

Ibolya Dávid and the MDF want in

Ibolya Dávid, leader of the small 'c' conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (Magyar Demokrata Fórum - MDF), indicated in no uncertain terms that she expects to be allowed to take part in the leaders debate scheduled for April 5th. The scheduled debate is meant to be between the two main contenders for the prime ministership, namely Ferenc Gyurcsány--Hungary's current Socialist head of government--and Viktor Orbán, leader of the centre-right Fidesz alliance. But in a press release posted on their website, the MDF noted that if the April 5th debate is to be for prime ministerial contenders, then Ms. Dávid has a rightful place at the table. The small conservative party demands that Mr. Gyurcsány and Mr. Orbán confirm whether the planned debate is for prime ministerial candidates, or if it is "simply an exchange between left-wing politicians." If the debate is the latter, then the MDF, "representing the Hungarian middle-class, will naturally leave the two socialist politicians alone."

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Latest Poll Forecasts a Three Party Parliament

A poll conducted by Marketing Centrum and published in HVG, a weekly political magazine, predicts that Hungarian voters will send three parties to Hungary's parliament and that the election will produce a government with a rasor-thin majority in the house. According to the poll's findings, the election is still too close to call, but it does appear as though the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)--a small liberal party and the junior coalition partner in the current Socialist government--will garner enough votes to pass the 5% threshold of parliamentary representation. If the SZDSZ is successful in returning to parliament and if the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) fails to send MPs to the house in order to help bolster a possible centre-right Fidesz government, there is a greater chance that Hungary's current left-of-centre MSZP-SZDSZ government will win a second term in office.

Marketing Centrum Results*:

Fidesz - KDNP (Fidesz - Christian Democratic People's Party): 44%
MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party): 41%
SZDSZ (Alliance of Free Democrats): 6%
MDF (Hungarian Democratic Forum): 4%
Other Parties (Combined): 5%

*The results are based on the preferences of decided voters.

Saturday, March 04, 2006

MDF: it's a Fight Against two Socialist Parties

The parliament's smallest opposition party, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (Magyar Demokrata Fórum - MDF) sees itself in a fight against not one, but two socialist parties--namely the governing Socialists (MSZP) and Fidesz, the right-wing, etatist opposition party. Ibolya Dávid, MDF party president, and Károly Herényi, the party's campaign chair, both indicated that in their eyes Fidesz is simply another socialist party, due to its state-centered, big-government and populist approach in politics. According to Mr. Herényi, the two major parties share the same left-wing attitudes, so it is "almost irrelevant which of them actually ends up winning the election." Ms. Dávid also had some sharp words to say about Viktor Orbán's party. "Fidesz has changed. It now plays on Kádárist nostalgia and has enriched itself with left-wing, Kadarist values, but has become all the poorer in its morals."

The MDF defines itself as Hungary's only small 'c' conservative party and, indeed, its politics of less state intervention, smaller government, a greater role for the private sector, as well as its moderate social conservatism align it closely with most centre-right parties of the western world.

Ms. Dávid's words and her party's campaign event was over-shadowed by a recent scandal in which Zoltán Bagó, a Fidesz candidate, threatened István Romsics, the MDF candidate in the same riding, in an effort to make the latter bow out of the race. Mr. Romsics recorded his conversation with Mr. Bagó, which included an ominous comment--should Fidesz win the election, Mr. Romsics may well lose his job if he decides to remain in the race. Once the scandal broke, Fidesz immediately withdrew Mr. Bagó's candidature and also suspended his party membership. Additionally, Mr. Orbán, Fidesz party president and main contender for the prime ministership, apologized to Ms. Dávid and the MDF on behalf of his party. Ms. Dávid, however, appears to have taken Mr. Orbán's apology with a grain of salt, noting that this was not an isolated incident, but just one of many scare tactics employed by Fidesz candidates against MDF opponents.

It remains to be seen if the MDF will be able to obtain the necessary 5% of the popular vote in order to return to parliament after April 9. Most opinion polls place the party's current level of support at around 3-4%.

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Smaller parties increase support base

According to Gallup Hungary's polling results for February 2006, the power relations between the two large parties (the Socialists and Fidesz) remain largely unchanged, while the two smaller parties in the present Hungarian parliament have shown modest increase in their support base. Of the two small parties--namely, the liberal Free Democrats and the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum--the former has the best chance of reaching the 5% threshold of parliamentary representation in the national elections to be held April 9, 2006.

Gallup's Polling Results (February 2006)

Fidesz-KDNP (Fidesz - Christian Democratic People's Party): 29%
MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party): 26%
SZDSZ (Alliance of Free Democrats): 4%
MDF (Hungarian Democratic Forum): 3%
Centrum Párt (Centre Party): 2%
Munkáspárt (Hungarian Communist Workers Party): 1%
MIÉP-JOBBIK Harmadik Út (The Third Way): 1%
Other parties: 0.4%
Would not vote: 15%
Undecided: 20%


Gallup's poll is based on 1014 responses and is accurate within 3.2%.

Sunday, February 26, 2006

Hungary's Communists would ban shopping malls

The Hungarian Communist Workers Party (Munkáspárt) revealed yet another plank of their election platform yesterday. Gyula Thürmer, the leader of the Workers Party told reporters that he would pass legislation to ban the construction of shopping malls in Hungary. This proposal appears to be part of an economic patriotism recently espoused by the left-wing fringe party, as they call on the government to support local, Hungarian small and medium-sized businesses over large multinational firms. The Party's press release, dated february 23rd, could easily have come from the pages of a right-wing nationalist party. "Hungary is in the hands of foreigners! Most banks and insurance companies are in the hands of foreigners! The shopping malls are also owned by foreigners. We by our electricity from foreigners! We pay our cell phone bills to foreigners!"

It remains to be seen if the Munkáspárt's patriotic and alarmist rhetoric will be enough to propel it into parliament on 9 April. Nevertheless, Mr. Thürmer must be discouraged with polling numbers showing his party hovering around 1% of the popular vote. But then again, the Workers Party has had 16 years to get used to electoral failure. This time around, the situation promises to be no different, especially with the recent internal party split and a rival faction running in the elections under the banner "Workers Party of Hungary 2006." I suppose this is what one might call 'splitting the lost cause vote.'

Saturday, February 25, 2006

Poll: Fidesz and Socialists in Dead Heat

According to a February poll conducted by the Szonda Ipsos polling firm, the two largest political parties are tied in a statistical dead heat. The poll is based on the responses of 1500 participants.

The Results:

Fidesz-KDNP (Fidesz-Christian Democratic People's Party): 29%
MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party): 29%
SZDSZ (Alliance of Free Democrats): 4%
MDF (Hungarian Democratic Forum): 3%
MIÉP-JOBBIK ("The Third Way"): 1%
Centrum Párt (Centre Party): 1%
Other parties: 2%
Undecided: 31%

Based on these results, only Fidesz-KDNP and MSZP would pass the necessary 5% threshold for representation in Hungary's parliament, creating a two-party political system.

Servergate

Fidesz, Hungary's right-wing opposition party's electoral campaign got off to a rather bumpy start. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) claimed that someone from an IP address associated with Fidesz logged on to the Socialist party's server and spent 11 hours online downloading internal party campaign documents. István Hiller, MSZP's party president was outraged. "This has truly shocked me and I find it very disturbing that a party would use such methods against its rivals."

For its part, Fidesz posted a statement on the party's website in which the party claimed that the login and password information for the MSZP server had been posted on an internet forum. (When asked to name the forum in question, Fidesz asserted that the password had actually circulated in an e-mail.) According to the opposition party, it did nothing wrong when it simply accessed the material being stored on the Socialist server. Máriusz Révész, Fidesz party spokesman also hit back with an allegation, namely that Socialists have made their own rounds on Fidesz's server and downloaded campaign material as well. According to Antal Rogán, the opposition party's campaign director, for the past two months, the Fidesz server has been accessed on a daily basis from MSZP party headquarters and they have downloaded a large amount of material from there. Mr. Rogán later told the press that three overly zealous Fidesz activists were likely responsible for entering the Socialist server, but he refused to name them, citing "privacy concerns." The three suspected hackers have been suspended from the campaign. According to Mr. Rogán about 200 party activists have access to the Fidesz server, as well as the party's MPs.

Gyurcsány - Hungary's Dancing PM

On a lighter note (there are generally few of these in Hungarian election campaigns), it recently surfaced that Hungary's Socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsány, created a home video for his government spokesman, András Batiz, as a personal wedding gift. In the video, Mr. Gyurcsány dances away by himself in his office, apparently pretending to be Hugh Grant. "I was happy to accept the role," Mr. Gyurcsány said, once journalists got wind of the clip. "I don't even mind that the video has gotten out to the public." Some analysts have suggested that Mr. Gyurcsány and the Socialists may be trying to attract more female voters by showing the more "human" side of the prime minister during the election campaign.

Since this blog is written from Canada, it's hard not to pose the question: can anyone imagine our own, rather straight-laced Stephen Harper doing something similar to Mr. Gyurcsány's dance routine and Hugh Grant impersonation? Probably not, though it's probably worth recalling that former PM Pierre Trudeau was also known for his occiasional dancing, namely that famous pirouette he did for the Queen.

Hungary's President Calls for EU Constitution

László Sólyom, Hungary's president, called for deeper political integration among the 25 EU member states and said that he sees the need for a European constitution. Mr. Sólyom made his Europhile views known during an interview on Germany's Deutsche Welle TV. According to the Hungarian president, the constitution is an important symbol representing belonging and a united political leadership. When asked by the reporter, Mr. Sólyom denied the existence of any palpable anti-EU sentiment in Hungary. Nevertheless, the original enthusiasm surrounding the EU has waned somewhat, according to the president.

In June 2005, when France and Denmark rejected the EU constitution, Viktor Orbán, Fidesz party leader, declared the constitution to be dead. According to Mr. Orbán, there is no further need to defend the EU constitutional order, "because it is over." "We must admit that the constitution, in its present form, has been rejected and the ratification process must be suspended."

Although it appears that Mr. Sólyom does not share the 'Anglo-Saxon' Euro-skepticism of many western Europeans, one of the two contenders for the position of prime minister has already staked his ground in the EU constitutional debate. One wonders if Mr. Orbán will maintain the view he expressed during the constitution row of 2005, namely that "Europe's citizens have voted down everyone who supported the European constitution." If so, a Fidesz win in the April elections may spell a new "era" of Euro-skepticism in Hungary, and potentially tense relations with the europhile president.

Hungary's Presidents (1990 - present)

The Office of the President

The office of the Hungarian president is of primarily symbolic importance. Foreign and domestic policy is determined by the government in power and by the given prime minister. According to Article 29 of the Hungarian Constitution, the president "symbolises the unity of the nation and watches over the democratic functioning of the state. " The president is elected for five year terms by the Hungarian parliament. Some political parties--including the Socialists and the Hungarian Democratic Forum--have called for the direct election of the president. This, however, has been opposed by the politicians of Fidesz and the Alliance of Free Democrats, both of whom prefer the current system.


Árpád Göncz (1990 - 2000)

Árpád Göncz became Hungary's first democratically elected president after 40 years of Communist dictatorship. Mr. Göncz was born in 1922 in Budapest. He received his university degree in 1944 from the faculty of law at Pázmány Péter University of Sciences. In 1944-45, Mr. Göncz actively took part in the country's resistance effort and denied compulsory military service that would have seen him sent off to Germany. In 1945, Mr. Göncz became a member of the Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP - Független Kisgazda Párt), a hybrid movement comprising both conservative and liberal elements. Prior to the 1948 dissolution of the Smallholders' by the Hungarian Communist Party, Mr. Göncz became the president of the party's youth wing in Budapest. Mr. Göncz's activities during and immediately after the 1956 revolution landed him in prison. Mr. Göncz sought a modus vivendi with the Soviet Union, in order to avoid further bloodshed in Hungary. In 1958 he was given a life sentence without the chance to appeal the decision. Mr. Göncz used his six years in prison to learn English. He was finally released in 1963 and afforded full amnesty. In 1965, Mr. Göncz became a freelance writer and a translator of various English works, including the writings of Faulkner, Hemingway and Updike, for which he was awarded the Wheatland Prize in 1989. In 1988, Mr. Göncz became a founding member of the Network of Free Initiatves (Szabad Kezdeményezések Hálozata), a liberal opposition group and precursor to the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ - Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége). In 1989-90, the writer and translator served as a member of SZDSZ's National Committee. From May 1990, Mr. Göncz became a member of the first democatic parliament and on August 4, 1990, after the governing conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF - Magyar Demokrata Fórum) and the liberal SZDSZ opposition reached an agreement, the parliament elected him as Hungary's first democratic head of state after 40 years of one-party rule. Mr. Göncz was re-elected for a second term in 1995.

Ferenc Mádl (2000 - 2005)

Ferenc Mádl was born in 1931, in Veszprém county. He received his university degree from the faculty of law at Eötvös Loránd University of Sciences in Budapest. Between 1961 and 1963 Mr. Mádl studies comparitive legal systems at the University of Strasbourg. The law student became a professor in 1973 and received his PhD in 1974. Mr. Mádl served as a visiting professor at the University of California (Berkley), at the University of Sacramento, the University of Munich and the University of Salzburg. Mr. Mádl is the author of 20 books and over 200 articles. Between 1993 and 1994 he served as minister of culture during the final months of József Antall's conservative government. In 1995, the parliament's conservative opposition parties (including the Hungarian Democratic Forum, the Smallholders, the Christian Democrats and Fidesz) nominated Mr. Mádl as presidential candidate against incumbent Árpád Göncz. The government's parliamentary majority, however, helped re-elect Mr. Göncz. Mr. Mádl was, however, successfully elected as president in June 2000, once nominated by the governing conservative coalition (Fidesz and the Hungarian Democratic Forum).During his five year presidency, Mr. Madl visited abroad on 83 occasions and to 32 countries. He was the first Hungarian president to visit Cyprus, Macedonia and Lebanon. Over the course of five years, Mr. Mádl received 18 distinctions, both foreign and Hungarian. The president affixed his signature to over 500 laws passed by the Hungarian parliament between 2000 and 2005 and turned to the Supreme Court on 12 occasions when he felt that bills passed by parliament may go against the letter of the constitution.

László Sólyom (2005 - present)

László Sólyom was born in 1942 in the southern city of Pécs. He received his degree from the faculty of law at the University of Pécs. Between 1969 and 1978, Mr. Solyom worked as a researcher at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. He also taught for several years at Pázmány Péter Catholic University, as well as at the Eötvös Loránd University of Sciences. In 1988 Mr. Sólyom was a founding member of the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF - Magyar Demokrata Fórum). In 1989, the parliament elected him as a member of the Constitutional Court and between 1990 and 1998 he served as the chair of the Constitutional Court. Mr. Sólyom was first nominated to the position of president by a civil association of intellectuals. In 2005, both opposition parties (Fidesz and MDF) supported his nomination in parliament. When the governing coalition of Socialists and Free Democrats were unable to nominate and support a single candidate (and with most Free Democrats unwilling to vote for the Socialist candidate) the junior coalition partner abstained from voting, thus giving the opposition the extra votes needed to elect its own candidate. Mr. Sólyom is somewhat of a liberal-conservative. He is also an avid environmentalist and as such, some have hailed him as Hungary's first "green president."

Prime Ministers of Hungary (1990 - Present)

József Antall (1990 – 1993)

József Antall was born in 1932. Mr. Antall’s father, József Antal Sr, served as a minister during the Prime Minister Pál Teleki’s interwar government in 1939 and served as a member of parliament following the end of the Second World War and prior to the establishment of Communist hegemony. Mr. Antall received his university degree in 1954 from the Eötvös Loránd University of Sciences, in history and literature. Mr. Antall became political active during the 1956 revolution, within the Christian-Conservative camp and specifically, in the colours of the Smallholders’ Party. Following the aborted revolution, Mr. Antall was arrested by Communist authorities and in 1959 the government revoked his teaching license. Mr. Antall later worked as a researcher and historian. In 1989, Mr. Antall as a participant in the Round Table discussion and represented the recently-established Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF – Magyar Demokrata Fórum). The MDF began as a hybrid organization of Christian democrats, other conservatives and “national liberals.” In May 1990, Mr. Antall proved victorious in Hungary’s first democratic election after 40 years of Communism and his victory ushered in a period of a moderate Christian-conservative government. The conservative prime minister created a coalition government with the resurrected Independent Smallholders’ Party (FKGP – Független Kisgazda Párt) and the Christian Democratic Peoples’ Party (KDNP – Keresztény Demokrata Néppárt). Mr. Antall also negotiated a deal with the largest opposition party, the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ – Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége), which contributed to a stable government. Mr. Antall died of cancer in December 1993, leaving behind him a widow, two adult sons and a government that has lost much of its popularity. Mr. Antall spoke English, French and German.

Péter Boross (1993 – 1994)

Péter Boross was born in 1928. Mr. Boross replaced József Antal as prime minister following his death and served as a "lame-duck", care-taker prime minister until the spring 1994 elections, when his party suffered a major defeat at the hands of the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP – Magyar Szocialista Párt).

Gyula Horn (1994 – 1998)

Gyula Horn was born in Budapest in 1932. Mr. Horn graduated from the Don Rostov College of Economics and Finance in 1954 and began working for the Hungarian foreign ministry in that same year. Mr. Horn also worked for the Hungarian missions in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia. In 1989, Mr. Horn, serving as foreign minister, was instrumental in dismantling the iron curtain between Hungary and Austrian and in allowing thousands of East German tourists vacationing around Lake Balaton to escape to the west. Many argue that Mr. Horn’s actions hastened the fall of the Berlin Wall. The Communist-turned-democrat became chairman of the newly-formed Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP – Magyar Szocialista Párt) in 1990. Riding on a wave of dissatisfaction with Hungary’s first democratic government and its handling of the economy, Mr. Horn won a resounding victory in 1994 and a majority of seats in the Hungarian parliament. He furthered strengthened his position by forming a coalition with the previously deeply anti-Communist Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ – Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége). During his four years in office, Mr. Horn’s government initiated tough economic austerity measures, including major cut-backs in most areas of social spending. Moreover, the Socialists under Mr. Horn hastened the process of privatization. During his final months in office, the Socialist government did offer society some new social benefits—the most lasting reform meant that all transportation fees were waived for seniors, who were now permitted to travel for free on all trains and public transportation in Hungary.

Viktor Orbán (1998 - 2002)

Viktor Orbán was born in 1963, in the western town of Székesfehérvár. He received his first university degree in 1987 from the Eötvös Loránd University’ss faculty of law in Budapest.In 1989, after having been awarded a scholarship from the Soros Foundation, Mr. Orbán spent the school year at Oxford University where he studied the liberal political philosophies prevalent in Anglo-Saxon cultures. Prior to leaving from England, however, Mr. Orbán helped establish the Alliance of Young Democrats (Fidesz). The young democratic activist and adversary of the Communist regime became something of a national figure following a speech he gave on July 16, 1989, during the rehabilitation and reburial of Imre Nagy, Hungary’s prime minister during the 1956 revolution, who was later executed for his role in the uprising. Following the first free elections of 1990, Mr. Orbán was a member of parliament and served as leader of his fledgling radically liberal youth party, Fidesz.

By 1995, Mr. Orbán had engineered a major transformation within his party, which saw Fidesz dump its radical liberalism for an etatist conservatism. Fidesz thus became the premiere centre-right political force in Hungary, with the other conservative parties—the MDF, FKGP and the KDNP—weakened after four years in office.

Mr. Orbán was elected prime minister of Hungary in 1998, after he beat the incumbent Socialist prime minister, Gyula Horn, and formed a conservative coalition government with the right-wing Independent Smallholders’ Party (FKGP – Független Kisgazda Párt) and the centre-right Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF – Magyar Demokrata Fórum). Mr. Orbán’s politics during his four years in government and after, as leader of the largest opposition party, may be best characterized as an Etatist conservatism. Mr. Orbán has opposed some forms of privatization and has sought to maintain a large state-apparatus, gravitated toward economic nationalism and thus placed himself at odds with neo-liberals. Moreover, under Mr. Orbán government, Hungary’s historic churches and denominations have been given an important role in the formation and expression of national culture. Sometimes decried a populist by his opponents, Mr. Orbán attempted to trascend the traditional boundaries of parliamentary democracy in order to take the politics of the nation out on the streets of Budapest—in the form of mass demonstrations and rallies—and to the smallest villages of rural Hungary, through a series of townhall meetings.

Following the Fidesz government’s unexpected—though narrow—defeat in the 2002 elections to the Socialists, Mr. Orbán has been the driving force behind the effort to unite all right-wing and right-of-centre voters under a single political party, thus avoiding the fragmentation of the conservative vote. Mr. Orbán has become the undisputed leader of the Hungarian right and turned his party into an alliance incorporating former members of the defunct Smallholders’ Party, Christian Democrats and disgruntled members of the Hungarian Democratic Forum.

With the disintegration of all parties on the right, the formation of a bipartisan political system—with the Socialists representing the left and Fidesz embodying the right—seems very much in the making. Fidesz will be heading into the upcoming 2006 elections with the telegenic, charismatic and well-spoken Mr. Orbán at the helm, in the hopes of taking back the reins of power from the Socialists and returning the right’s favourite son back to the prime minister’s office.

Mr. Orbán is married and has five young children.
Hungary’s former conservative prime minister earned a doctoral degree and speaks English.

Péter Medgyessy (2002 – 2004)

Péter Medgyessy was born in Budapest, in 1942. He graduated with a degree in economics from the University of Economics in 1966 and later earned a PhD degree. Mr. Medgyessy became finance minister in 1987, where he prepared the way for Hungary’s transition to a market economy, by implementing reforms in the fields of banking and taxation. Mr. Medgyessy became deputy prime minister in 1988, during the dying days of the old one-party, Communist regime. After several years in the private sector, Mr. Medgyessy returned to politics and served as finance minister from 1996 to 1998 under Gyula Horn’s Socialist government. In 2001, he became the Socialist Party’s candidate for prime minister and narrowly won the April 2002 elections. The Socialist prime minister formed a coalition government with the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ – Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége). But a few weeks following his electoral victory, the prime minister found himself embroiled in a scandal that threatened to topple his fledgling government. Magyar Nemzet, Hungary’s right-wing outed Mr. Medgyessy by publishing a set of documents that proved him to have served as a counter-espionage agent under the code name „D-209,” working for the former Communist regime. Mr. Medgyessy avoided defeat after the his liberal coalition partner decided to honour its agreement with the Socialists. After a massive defeat on the part of the Socialist Party in the June 2004 EU parliamentary elections, Mr. Medgyessy’s position weakened within both the government and within his party. On August 25, the prime minister tendered his resignation, once he realized that his coalition partner, and leaders within his own party had lost confidence in him and were pondering his replacement.

Mr. Medgyessy speaks French and Romanian.
The former Socialist prime minister is married and has two adult children.

Ferenc Gyurcsány (2004 – present )

Ferenc Gyurcsány was born in 1961, in the western town of Pápa. In 1984, he completed teachers’ college and in 1990 went on to receive a university degree from the Janus Pannonius University of Sciences in the southern city of Pécs. From 1984 to 1988 Mr. Gyurcsány served as the general secretary of Pécs’s local branch of the Alliance of Communist Youth (KISZ), Hungary’s communist youth movement. Following the change in regime, Mr. Gyurcsány left politics entirely and entered the private sphere where he became a very successful businessman. Mr. Gyurcsány returned to politics in 2002 when he was appointed Prime Minister Péter Medgyessy’s advisor. In 2003, he was appointed minister of sports and—through something of a palace coup, succeeded his former boss and became prime minister of Hungary.

As prime-minister Mr. Gyurcsány has followed the economic liberalism of his predecessor. Nevertheless, in his first months in office, the Socialist head of government assumed a more confrontational approach with the right-wing opposition—and specifically, with Viktor Orbán—accusing his opponents of being nationalists and the Catholic Church (an unofficial supporter of the right) of being clerical and anachronistic in its political and social views. At the time of his appointment as prime minister, there was widespread consensus among Socialists that the well-spoken--though at times flippant--young prime minister represented a new generation in left-wing politics and that he could give the energetic and popular Mr. Orbán a run for his money in the 2006 elections. Since politics in Hungary has become increasingly a game of competing personalities, Mr. Gyurcsány has sought to place himself diametrically opposite his conservative rival. While Mr. Gyurcsány is a defender of neo-liberal economic policies, a secular state and the concept of a "modern republic," he sees Mr. Orbán as representing a world of clericalism, nationalism and state intervention.

Mr. Gyurcsány is married and has four young children. The prime minister speaks English.

How it all Works

Hungary's political system is among the most complex in the western world. The voting mechanism takes on a hybrid form; it is comprised of first past the ballot voting, MPs elected on the basis of majority voting, as well as proportional representation. The Hungarian Parliament is made up of 386 seats which all come up for grabs once every four years. Of the 386 MPs, 176 are elected in single-member constituencies, or ridings, a maximum of 152 members are elected by proportional representation from regional (district) party lists in 19 counties and Budapest, and a minimum of 58 seats are distributed through a type of proportional representation and elected from national party lists. Also referred to as the compensatory list, these remaining 58 seats are distributed by taking into account the so-called "surplus vote" in two ways: allocation based on the votes cast for candidates in single-member constituencies who failed to win a seat and votes cast for regional (district) party-lists, which failed elect a single representative.

Crucially, only those parties that garner at least 5% of the popular vote can enjoy official party status in parliament and be allocated seats from the regional and national compensatory lists.
Hungary's over 8 million eligible electors cast two ballots in any parliamentary election: one vote is cast for a candidate in their own riding, while another vote is cast for a party-list. The two votes need not be cast for the identical party, leaving open the possibility that a voter will elect a local MP from one party, but vote for the opposing party list. Candidates in the 176 individual ridings must receive more than half of the total votes in order for them to be declared the winner. Should this fail to occur, a second round of voting is held in the riding, usually two weeks following the first round. In the second round, the remaining candidates must receive the most votes among all candidates in order to be declared the winner.

Following the election, the party with the most seats--individual ridings, regional lists and the national list--may either form a government, or begin coalition negotiations with another party in the new parliament. The new Prime Minister is then sworn in by the President of the Republic. The President, in turn, is elected every five years by the parliament, rather than by popular vote. The position entails primarily symbolic importance, while most political power is vested with the Prime Minister.

Welcome to Hungary 2006!

Welcome to Hungary 2006! This blog aims to serve as a resource to English readers who wish to be informed about news and current events pertaining to Hungarian politics and the 2006 parliamentary elections. This site serves as a non-partisan political resource centre devoted to providing accurate and comprehensive information on the facets of political life in Hungary, especially during the 2006 election campaign.

The first round of voting will take place on April 9 and the second on April 23. For information on the electoral system, check out the article entitled "How it all works." This should serve as a helpful backgrounder.